Americans See Real Estate as a Better Investment Than Stocks or Gold

Americans See Real Estate as a Better Investment Than Stocks or Gold

Last month, in a post on the Liberty Street Economics blog, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York noted that Americans believe buying a home is definitely or probably a better investment than buying stocks. Last week, a Gallup Poll reaffirmed those findings.

In an article on the current real estate market, Gallup reports:

Gallup usually finds that Americans regard real estate as the best long-term investment among several options — seeing it as superior to stocks, gold, savings accounts and bonds. This year, 41% choose real estate as the best investment, up from 35% a year ago, with stocks a distant second.

Here's the breakdown:The article goes on to say:

The 41% choosing real estate is the highest selecting any of the five investment options in the 11 years Gallup has asked this question.

Is real estate really a secure investment right now?

Some question American confidence in real estate as a good long-term investment right now. They fear that the build-up in home values may be mirroring what happened right before the housing crash a little more than a decade ago. However, according to Merrill Lynch, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Goldman Sachs, the current real estate market is strong and sustainable.

As Morgan Stanley explains to their clients in a recent Thoughts on the Market podcast:

Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today’s home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.

Bottom Line

Americas belief in the long-term investment value of homeownership has been, is, and will always be, very strong.

 

Sellers Are Ready To Enter the Housing Market

One of the biggest questions in real estate today is, When will sellers return to the housing market? An ongoing shortage of home supply has created a hyper-competitive environment for hopeful buyers, leading to the ultimate sellers market. However, as the economy continues to improve and more people get vaccinated, more sellers may finally be in sight.

The Home Purchase Sentiment Index (HPSI) by Fannie Mae recently noted the percentage of consumer respondents who say its a good time to sell a home increased from 61% to 67%. Doug Duncan, Senior Vice President and Chief Economist at Fannie Mae, indicates:

Consumer positivity regarding home-selling conditions nearly matched its all-time high. (See graph below):

Fannie Mae isn't the only expert group noticing a rise in the percentage of people thinking about selling. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.com, shares:

The results of a realtor.com survey . . . showed that one-in-ten homeowners plans to sell this year, with 63 percent of those, looking to list in the next 6 months. Just as encouragingly, close to two-thirds of sellers plan to sell their homes at prices under 350,000, which would offer a tremendous boost to affordable housing for first-time buyers.

Bottom Line

If you're considering selling your house, don't wait for more competition to pop up in your neighborhood. Lets connect today to explore the benefits of selling your house now before more homes come to the market.

 

 

Considering a Yard Pond?

Ponds are increasingly popular water features for homeowners. Having a small decorative pond in your yard can help you unwind, provide a unique ecosystem for certain animals, and just generally add some beauty to your property. With that said, it’s important to realize that installing a yard pond is a bigger task than just digging a hole and adding some water. Before diving into a pond project, it’s important that you stop to consider everything that’s involved with the installation, as well as some of the things you’ll need for upkeep once the pond is finished. This isn’t meant to discourage you, just to make you sure that you’re aware of all of this before you get too far into your planning.

Installing a Yard Pond

Yard ponds can range in size between a small 550-gallon pond to one that holds 2,000 gallons or more, so it’s important to take the time to plan exactly how large you want your pond to be. Try outlining your pond with a rope to get an idea of its dimensions, then add an extra 2 feet or so around the entire border to account for transitionary plants, rocks, and other border features. You’ll want to keep an eye on the area once you have it outlined, since most pond plants require at least six hours of sunlight or more per day to thrive.

You’ll also need to have a way to get power to the pond to power any pumps or fountains that you use to circulate water, and a means to add additional water as needed if your local rainfall isn’t sufficient to counter evaporation. Other necessities include a pond liner to keep the water from simply soaking into the ground, any fish or plants that you want to add to the pond once it’s installed, and a pond net or skimmer to keep leaves, seed pods, and similar items from clogging up your pump in the spring and fall. In addition to all of that, you may also need permits or other legal documents before you can break ground, and you will likely have to have a survey to mark underground pipes and wires to avoid potential fines.

Yard Pond Upkeep

Once a pond is installed, there are some things you should keep in mind as part of your ongoing maintenance plan. You’ll need to check your pond every week for leaves, debris, and other things that might gunk up the works and potentially harm fish or plants, though this can be negated with a pond net during the fall or other times when a lot of potential debris is likely. Checking the water level is also important, especially during the summer. If you have cold winters, you may also need a heater or air bubbler to keep everything from freezing as well. In most cases you will only need to spend around 15 to 30 minutes a week checking on these issues, but that can vary depending on where you live.

Another thing you’ll want to consider is insects. While dragonflies and similar insects are often a welcome sight around ponds, water features like this can also be a breeding ground for mosquitoes if you aren’t careful. Making sure that the water is sufficiently circulated or adding products that are designed to prevent mosquito growth without harming fish or other animals are good ways to take care of this problem, though some of these treatments may have to be repeated multiple times per year. Certain fish may also help to keep the mosquito population under control.

Ready to Build Your Pond?

A yard pond can be a major undertaking, but it can really pay off once it’s finished. If you’re not sure where to start, it’s a good idea to consult with a landscaper or water feature installer in your area to see what will work best for your property. HomeKeepr can help you connect with the pros you need to make your pond dreams a reality; sign up for a free account today to get started.

Should I Move or Refinance?

The level of equity homeowners have is at an all-time high. According to the U.S. Census, over 38% of owner-occupied homes are owned free and clear, meaning they don't have a mortgage. Those with a mortgage are seeing their equity skyrocket too. Every time real estate values increase, homeowners get a dollar-for-dollar gain in their home equity.

According to the first-quarter 2021 U.S. Home Equity Report from ATTOM Data Solutions:

17.8 million residential properties in the United States were considered equity-rich, meaning that the combined estimated amount of loans secured by those properties was 50 percent or less of their estimated market value.

The count of equity-rich properties in the first quarter of 2021 represented 31.9 percent, or about one in three, of the 55.8 million mortgaged homes in the United States. That was up from 30.2 percent in the fourth quarter of 2020, 28.3 percent in the third quarter and 26.5 percent in the first quarter of 2020.

This surge in home equity has given most homeowners the opportunity to use that equity in one of two ways:

1. Refinance to cash out some of the equity or lower their current payment
2. Move to a home that better fits their current needs

Lets break down the possibilities.

1. Refinance

An abundance of equity and record-low mortgage rates can make refinancing a home very easy. Some homeowners choose to refinance so they can lower their payments. Others convert a portion of the equity to cash while keeping their monthly payment the same.

There are many homeowners who could take advantage of lower rates and higher levels of equity, but they haven't yet. According to an Economic & Housing Research Note from earlier this month, there were over five million homeowners with a loan funded by Freddie Mac who would benefit by refinancing their loan. As of January 2021, there were:

• 452,122 loans with an average mortgage rate of 6.17%
• 1,027,834 loans with an average mortgage rate of 4.39%
• 3,687,780 loans with an average mortgage rate of 4.21%

With mortgage rates currently hovering around 3%, any of these homeowners would benefit from refinancing. They could lower their payments by hundreds of dollars per month or cash out large sums of equity while keeping their monthly payment the same.

Example:

If a homeowner has a 200,000 fixed-rate mortgage with a 6% interest rate and refinances that loan to a 3% interest rate, their monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) will go from 1,199 per month to 843 per month a savings of 356 a month, or 4,272 each year.

On the other hand, if they keep their mortgage payment the same, they could cash out a significant amount of their equity.

2. Move into your dream home

The past year prompted many households to redefine what a dream home really means, and its something different to everyone. Those who have a high mortgage rate could use their equity as a down payment and perhaps buy their next home without significantly raising their mortgage payment.

Example:

Suppose a person bought a house for 216,000 at the height of the market in 2006. (The median home price in May of 2006). If they put 10% down and took out a mortgage of 194,400 at 6.41% (the average rate in 2006), the monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would have been 1,217.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), a typical single-family home has grown in value by approximately 150,000 over the last fifteen years. That means the 216,000 house would be worth about 366,000 today.

After deducting selling expenses, they would be left with about 130,000 (150,000 minus approximately 20,000 in selling expenses).

A seller could take that equity and use it as a down payment on a new house. Lets assume they purchased a home for 450,000 (roughly 80,000 more than the value of their current home). If they put the 130,000 down, they could take out a mortgage of 320,000 with a 3% interest rate. The monthly mortgage payment (principal and interest) would be 1,349. Therefore, they could buy a home worth 80,000 more than the one they have today and only spend an extra 132 per month.

Bottom Line

Whether you're refinancing your house or moving to a new home, your current mortgage rate and your level of equity are crucial in your decision-making process. Look at your mortgage documentation to find out your interest rate, and then lets connect to determine the potential equity in your home. You may be surprised by the opportunities you have.

 

 3 Graphs Showing Why You Should Sell Your House Now

There's no doubt that 2021 is the year of the seller when it comes to the housing market. If you're a homeowner thinking of moving to better suit your changing needs, now is the perfect time to do so. Low mortgage rates are in your favor when you're ready to purchase your dream home, and high buyer demand may give you the leverage you need to negotiate the best contract terms on the sale of your house. Here's a look at what's driving this sellers advantage and why there's so much opportunity for homeowners who are ready to move this season.

1. Historically Low Inventory

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains:

Total housing inventory at the end of March amounted to 1.07 million units, up 3.9% from February’s inventory . . . Unsold inventory sits at a 2.1-month supply at the current sales pace, marginally up from February’s 2.0-month supply and down from the 3.3-month supply recorded in March 2020.

Even with a slight rise in the number of houses for sale this spring, inventory remains near an all-time low (See graph below):High buyer interest is creating a major imbalance between supply and demand, but as the small uptick in inventory shows, sellers are beginning to reenter the market. Selling your house now enables you to take advantage of buyer demand and get the most attention for your house before more listings come to the market later this year.

2. Frequent Bidding Wars

As a result of the supply and demand imbalance, homebuyers are entering bidding wars at an accelerating rate. NAR reports the average number of bids received on the most recently closed sales is 4.8 offers. This number has doubled since the first quarter of 2020 (See graph below):As buyers face increasingly tough competition while searching for homes to purchase, they're more likely to be flexible and generous in their negotiations. This gives a seller the opportunity to choose the best buyer for their needs and be selective about things like time to close, contingencies, renovations, and more. Working with your trusted agent is the best way to determine how to navigate the negotiation process when selling your house.

3. Days on the Market

In todays market, sellers aren't waiting very long to find a buyer for their house, either. NAR reports:

Properties typically remained on the market for 18 days in March, down from 20 days in February and from 29 days in March 2020. 83% of the homes sold in March 2021 were on the market for less than a month. (See graph below):

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun explains:

“The sales for March would have been measurably higher, had there been more inventory Days-on-market are swift, multiple offers are prevalent, and buyer confidence is rising.

Bottom Line

If you're thinking about moving, these three graphs clearly show that its a great time to sell your house. Lets connect today so you can learn more about the opportunities in our local area.

 

Experts Say Home Prices Will Continue to Appreciate

Its clear that consumers are concerned about how quickly home values are rising. Many people fear the speed of appreciation may lead to a crash in prices later this year. In fact, Google reports that the search for When is the housing market going to crash? has actually spiked 2450% over the past month.

In addition, Jim Dalrymple II of Inman News notes:

One of the most noteworthy things that came up in Inmans conversations with agents was that every single one said they've had conversations with clients about whether or not the market is heading into a bubble.

To alleviate some of these concerns, lets look at what several financial analysts are saying about the current residential real estate market. Within the last thirty days, four of the major financial services giants came to the same conclusion: the housing market is strong, and price appreciation will continue. Here are their statements on the issue:

Goldman Sachs Research Note on Housing:

Strong demand for housing looks sustainable. Even before the pandemic, demographic tailwinds and historically-low mortgage rates had pushed demand to high levels. … consumer surveys indicate that household buying intentions are now the highest in 20 years. As a result, the model projects double-digit price gains both this year and next.

Joe Seydl, Senior Markets Economist, J.P.Morgan:

Home buyers interest rates are still historically low, though they are inching up. Housing prices have spiked during the last six-to-nine months, but we don't expect them to fall soon, and we believe they are more likely to keep rising. If you are looking to purchase a new home, conditions now may be better than 12 months hence.

Morgan Stanley, Thoughts on the Market Podcast:

Unlike 15 years ago, the euphoria in today’s home prices comes down to the simple logic of supply and demand. And we at Morgan Stanley conclude that this time the sector is on a sustainably, sturdy foundation . . . . This robust demand and highly challenged supply, along with tight mortgage lending standards, may continue to bode well for home prices. Higher interest rates and post pandemic moves could likely slow the pace of appreciation, but the upward trajectory remains very much on course.

Merrill Lynchs Capital Market Outlook:

There are reasons to believe that this is likely to be an unusually long and strong housing expansion. Demand is very strong because the biggest demographic cohort in history is moving through the household-formation and peak home-buying stages of its life cycle. Coronavirus-related preference changes have also sharply boosted home buying demand. At the same time, supply is unusually tight, with available homes for sale at record-low levels. Double-digit price gains are rationing the supply.

Bottom Line

If you're concerned about making the decision to buy or sell right now, lets connect to discuss what's happening in our local market.

 

 

Your HVAC Estimate Checklist

There’s nothing like the feeling of a rush of cool air from your air conditioning system, but what happens when that cool air turns lukewarm, or worse, won’t kick on at all? It may be time to get that ailing HVAC system replaced.

Talking to an HVAC professional about an air conditioning replacement can be intimidating. There’s a lot to know, and it’s probably not going to be cheap. But considering that a typical air conditioning unit lasts 10 to 15 years, what you invest today will help pay for itself in the longer term. That being said, it’s still important to know what to ask and the pitfalls to watch for.

Always Ask About Licensing and Insurance

Before you so much as let someone start to quote your HVAC job, ask about their licensing and insurance status. Not only will this save you a ton of time by weeding out anyone who isn’t actually a practicing professional, you’ll avoid issues that can arise if, for example, your HVAC is installed without a permit, or there’s a jobsite accident without proper coverage. HVAC installers should always be licensed according to your state and local guidelines.

Your installer should also carry the proper insurance policies. For example, a comprehensive policy will protect you should there be damage to your property as a result of a mistake made during the installation. And Workers Compensation insurance can also help by protecting you from being held liable should your HVAC workers have an accident on the job. Be aware that small shops don’t always carry Workers Compensation because of rules on who can be insured, so if your installer doesn’t carry Workers Compensation, be sure to get a liability waiver.

Your HVAC Estimate

As far as the estimate itself is concerned, there are several questions you should ask right up front. These questions and their answers should also be included on the estimate itself, as it serves as a sort of informal contract on the job you’re having done. Make sure you’ve hit these points:

• What’s the brand and SEER rating of the unit that will be installed? If you’re having both your furnace and air conditioner replaced, ask about the fuel type and efficiency of the furnace, as well. If you’ve got a standard heating and air conditioning system, this is your opportunity to switch to something a bit more energy efficient, like a heat pump, so be sure to ask if there are other options that can use your existing ductwork.
• What size is the unit that will be installed? Make sure to note the size of the unit you’re having removed and how well it worked during its service. A single like-for-like replacement unit should be the same size if the performance was good, or should be adjusted slightly depending on your actual needs. Note that you will need a matching A-coil if you change air conditioner sizes without changing your furnace, too.
• Will you need ductwork? Ductwork can usually be reused, but as it gets older it can develop damage, come apart, or rust through, depending on the materials and conditions it’s subjected to. If any amount of ductwork is being replaced, make sure to have this noted and broken out in the estimate, because ductwork costs can add up fast. On the other hand, this is also a great time to add additional registers or cold air returns in older homes to help improve efficiency.
• What other things will be done while they’re working? HVAC companies do more than just install heating and air conditioning units. They can remove old furnaces left behind in crawl spaces, clean your ductwork, install smart thermometers, or provide you with electrostatic filters, just to name a few. If any of this work is being done, have it included in the estimate and later ensure it was completed as promised.
• Is there a warranty? Most importantly, make sure you have all the details on any warranties offered. Most HVAC systems will come with warranties on the individual parts, as well as a separate warranty on labor. This information can be extremely useful should your air conditioner need unexpected repairs, like a replacement control board or compressor.

How Do You Find Qualified HVAC People?

There’s no easier way to find the right person for the job than to look in your HomeKeepr community where you’ll find recommendations of HVAC pros in your area from people you know and trust.

JOIN HOMEKEEPR

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